Urea prices continue to fall, price rises expected post rainfall
Prices for granular urea sold from warehouses in Geelong continued to slide on the back of low rainfall as farmers and retailers' buying interest has been weak. The price falls are expected to reverse after long awaited rainfall arrived in some cropping areas across the states of Victoria and South Australia (SA) over the weekend.
Favourable weather conditions in Northern New South Wales have supported demand for fertilizer and suppliers have reported larger parcels being sold in the region. Queensland crop development conditions have also been favourable.
East coast urea suppliers are looking very carefully at how much rainfall hits key cropping areas in the short term to decide whether to lower the number of cargoes in their import programmes. At least one supplier has already recalibrated its import programme, within its term contracts, to reduce the number of cargoes it is bringing to the Australian market.
Stocks remain high
Australia imported 1.26 million tonnes of urea in the first four months of this year, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. Urea imports reached an estimated 601,000 tonnes in May and are expected to decrease to 508,000 tonnes in June, according to vessel-tracking data from trade analytics platform Kpler. This suggests Australia's urea imports could reach 2.37 million tonnes in January-June, down from 2.49 million tonnes in the first half of 2024.
But Australian urea stocks are still likely to be higher at the end of June this year compared with the same time a year earlier, according to Argus estimates.
Higher stocks should protect consumers from large-scale price jumps similar to those seen in July 2023, when unexpectedly high rainfall and limited stockpiles caused prices to increase by A$100/t.
New Zealand's Ballance to end Mt Maunganui SSP output
New Zealand fertilizer manufacturer and importer Ballance Agri-Nutrients will cease manufacturing super-single-phosphate (SSP) fertilizer at its 350,000 t/yr Mount Maunganui plant, while continuing to use the site near the port of Tauranga on the North Island for storage and distribution.
Ballance will continue to import fertilizers, and manufacture SSP at its 220,000 t/yr Awarua plant at Invercargill and urea at its 260,000t/yr Kapuni site in Taranaki.
Australian phosphate JV PhosOne targets one million tonnes per year output
Australian mining company North West Phosphate (NWP) and mining processing group Sibanye-Stillwater are targeting 1 million t/yr of phosphate concentrate output by 2028 from their PhosOne joint venture.
The project aims to produce around 500,000 t/yr of 34-35.5pc P205 and 500,000 t/yr of 32pc P205 concentrate, NWP's executive director John Cotter told Argus.
Commentary and pricing supplied by Argus Media
Disclaimer: The information provided in this report is general in nature and is intended for informational purposes only.